Wednesday, September 18, 2013

How to win at FanDuel Fantasy Football - Week 3 Strategy Guide - Daily Fantasy Football

Week three of the 2013 Fantasy Football season is here and it's amazing how things change from week to week in the NFL. Weeks one and two were defined by some extremely undervalued players. Those of you that followed my advice here last week took advantage and hopefully won as much money as I did. Last week guys like Desean Jackson ($5700) and Ahmad Bradshaw ($5700) and Mike Vick ($8100) were incredibly undervalued and those of us that went all in on those players reaped the benefits! If you haven't already, check out our week 2 recap. I wound up placing top ten in 4 tournaments last week three of which I ended up in the top two. If only Cincinnati Defense had put up 12 instead of just 10 on Monday Night a couple of those would have bounced to #1. In short it was a fantastic week for me and hopefully for our readers. These types of weeks are not going to happen all the time so don't get your expectations that high. Remember the strategy guide for Fanduel. We are playing 60 to 70% of our bets on easy odds 50/50 and Head to Head matchup's. The key is to break even on mediocre weeks and hit it big when your "ALL IN" players work out. Last week going all in on Shady, DeSean, and Vick really worked out well. The tournament winning lineups generally included Jimmy Graham and either Vick, Rodgers or Rivers at QB.

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Week 3 RB's To Target

For week 3 of the season the name of the game is injury replacements. As of this writing (Wednesday) the injury status of a number of star players is still unclear. If Ray Rice does not play (I think he may not) Bernard Pierce ($5900) becomes a must start. If Reggie Bush is held out Joique Bell ($6500) becomes the all in play of the week. I like James Starks ($5600) this week as well as an "ALL IN" play simply because the cost is so low and he is locked in as Green Bay's starter for this week. Keep an eye on Jacquizz Rodgers ($5600) as well subbing in for the injured Steven Jackson. Quizz's situation is more murky then the others because he will be sharing touches. The reset of player costs this week means you will need to pepper a couple of these low cost high value players. At the upper end of the spectrum some of the attractive matchups are:

#1 Jamal Charles $9200 @ Phi
#2 Doug Martin $8900 vs KC
#3 Fred Morris $8200 vs Detroit
#4 Lynch $8300 vs Jacksonville

It's up to you to figure out how to pepper these players in to your lineups. I will mix up lineups and include one value guy and one high cost guy, I'll also do some with 2 value guys, 2 high priced RB's mixed with a low cost QB etc. Try and mix it up as much as possible. Remember that Starks and especially Bell have the highest upside of the value replacements. If its clear that Bush is out I can see going in 95% on Bell.


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Week 3 WR's to Target:

The WR situation for week 3 is interesting as well. Gone are the cheap price points for DJax and Garcon. I still like both players this week but at $7400 and $7000 respectively they are more fairly valued then they'd been the past couple of weeks. Andre Johnson left last week's game with concussion syptoms. If he is held out then DeAndre Hopkins ($5700) becomes a nice value play. I also like Kenbrell Tompkins ($5400) this week coming off a long 10 days of practice with Tom Brady and with Revis likely covering Edelman. Another player to take a shot on is Eddie Royal ($4500). Royal isn't great but the Chargers offense is clicking right now and he's cheap. He also appears to be their #1 WR.

At the high end of the WR I like most of the players equal to their value. Pepper in Megatron, Julio Jones, AJ Green, DeSean, Welker, Demaryus, Fitzgerald (if healthy) Garcon, Cobb, Cruz, Bolden etc to your lineups in equal weighting.

Week 3 Defense To Target

When Jacksonville is traveling to Seattle ($5700) for an ass whoopin there isn't much more that needs to be said. I will be trying to find a way to get Seattle D on all of my lineups. Some cheaper alternatives if you need those extra dollars: Minnesota D ($5000) taking on a Cleveland Team without Weeden at QB. I also like Buffalo D and New York Jets D.

Week 3 TE to Target:

This is another tricky area this week. TE's are inconsistent so I try to pepper them in to my lineups without grabbing too many shares of any one particular one. Guys I like this week:

Jared Cook ($6000) @ Dallas
Greg Olsen ($6300) @ Giants
Jason Witten ($6500) Vs St Louis
Vernon Davis ($7100) Vs Indy if healthy
Jimmy Graham ($8000) Vs Arizona - Graham is always a good play but it will be tricky to get him in a lineup at that price.

Week 3 QB's With Great Matchups:

This is where the money is often made or lost. Each week I try to mix in a few QB's and let the lineups come to me based off that. For week three some guys I like are:

Colin Kaepernick ($9200) vs Indy
Mike Vick ($8900) vs KC
RG3 ($8600) vs Det
Stafford ($8500) @ WAS
Russell Wilson ($8100) vs JAC
Value Play:
Carson Palmer ($6900) @ NO

That's our week 3 picks for your FanDuel Lineups. If you haven't registered yet my question for you is WHY NOT? FanDuel daily fantasy football brings the excitement of Fantasy Football up to a whole new level. Plus if you sign up using this LINK and use Referral Code CHIEFST you will get up to a 75% first deposit bonus and be elligible for free rolls like our WEEK 3 BEAT THE GEEK and weekly FanDuel Partners promotions.

Let us know what you think. Did our advice help you win some duels last week? Do you have some player picks you'd like to share? Hit us up in the comments section with questions or comments. The goal here is to build a community based on dominating everyone else at FanDuel. Let's work together to have fun and win cash at daily fantasy football!


9 comments:

  1. I wish i had added some lineups with both shady and charles - although I am still in good shape with charles and my value options. Good point to take to next week for a couple lineups - i like your comment on 2 values, 1-1, and 2 top-end.

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  2. I'm finding it tough this week to pay top dollar for 2 RB's when the pickins at WR are very hit or miss in the under $7000 category. I'm finding most of my Sunday lineups with two fill in guys at RB like Pierce and Starks or Gore and Pierce etc..

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  3. Yea - I am trying to match up at least one top RB with a value - going heavy with Lynch and Charles with Bell, Pierce and Rodgers, I also like bernard - but he is more of a gamble play on some long shots. I might have to swap out Bell in a few lineups if tomorrow it looks like Bush will play more than initially suspected. I will still leave him in many though since I like the matchup. I have a couple where I match 2 values as well.

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  4. At WR - I like you pick of Thompkins, and took a few shots with royal and hopkins as well...Royal makes me nervous because of how many TDs he already has in 2 games and Hopkins I am less thrilled about the matchup. I like Welker, AJ green and Megatron for the matchups. I like J. Thomas at TE as well for a Peyton setup.

    What are you thoughts on going heavy with one team (Peyton, Thomas, Welker, etc) (Stafford, Megatron, Bell/Bush)? As a general principal. Have you typically done better then spreading things out across more teams or with some of these setups? Obviously if the team has a game like Peyton did in week 1 it works out well, but that does not happen much where all the WR and RB and QB have a steller game. I kind of think you might have better chances trying to pick the 1 player on each team that might have the best game for that team on that week, but I can't help always wanting to match the QB I pick with at least 1 guy from that team.

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  5. Going heavy on one team is called stacking. It is definitely a smart technique for winning tournaments. Think of it this way, the dream scenario in fantasy football is the shootout game. In tournaments you need to hit on basically every position to come out with the win. If you grab Dez Bryant and he has a monster day chances are Romo will have had a great day too. My one first place finish last season in a 3200 person tournament was a Denver stack. I had Peyton, Decker Moreno and Thomas all in the same lineup. I talk about individual player values here in these articles but if you have the inclination it makes sense to create stacked lineups based around particular games you think may be high scoring. This week I think the Detroit Washington game has that type of potential and I have some lineups with Calvin Stafford and some with Griffin Garcon as combos.

    One other thought, I reconsidered Tompkins for this week a bit. Seems as though Revis will be on him. I'm liking Edelman quite a bit considering. Just food for thought. Also if at gametime tomorrow word comes out that Bush is inactive I will literally change every lineup to include Joique Bell.

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  6. I hope you didn't rethink Thompkins too much...I ended up leaving him in the lineups I had him in except one that I swapped for Edelman - kind of glad I did. J. Bell was a gamble since I would not be around to change it last minute - glad that worked out as well. I think this week the defense is where I am going to get hammered...non of my defences did all that well - Seattle was okay, but not like some like Chicago, Bal, etc...I will have to wait until tonight to see how I fair, but I should do well this week - no top-end wins - but a solid performance.

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  7. Great read on Bell, I left a spot open for either him or bush up until the last minute when they announced if Bush would be playing. Had a TE ready to go to compensate for which RB went in. Worked out really well, highest finish in a tourney for me so far with that lineup (40)

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  8. Hunter, I'm glad you didn't follow my advice on Tompkins and Gary, nice work going with Bell and getting a top 40 finish. This was a weird week dueling for me. Bell was a bit of a savior but my WR choices and QB's in particular were mostly duds. Luckily between Matt Prater and Wes Welker on Monday night I was able to place in the top 150 in a few of the $5 3000 person tournaments I had entered and wound up going from a 70% loss for the week down to 25%. The good news is week 4 looks great for matchups.

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  9. Yea it worked out really well for me actually - I won all my bets except for 2 tourneys and tripled my money for the week. Woot. I like that. I had a few of top 100 finishes in 3k tourneys and a top 30 finish in a 700 tourney. Everything worked well this week. I would have probably been in contention for the big prizes had Lynch and Royal done better (mainly lynch since he was in so many lineups - seriously how did he not do better)....but I am happy. Starting to look at this week and will let you know my thoughts once I have them...lol. Sorry for your loss, but glad welker helped bring you back from the brink.

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